Many of those watching Siaya Governor James Orengo’s slow exit from the Orange Democratic Movement may not fully appreciate the political genesis of this rumble in Luo Nyanza politics. That script was written decades ago long before most of today’s eager beaver politicians burst out of their mom’s uteruses. Some hadn’t even been conceived. But the Siaya governor’s circumlocutions are legendary. He is a man with a messianic vision and high self-regard for his political skill. He has always believed that he was the anointed one yet he was condemned to second fiddle to the indomitable Raila Odinga. Today, by the stroke of fate, Mr Orengo fancies himself the colossus of Nyanza after Mr Odinga demise in October 2025.

To be sure, Mr Orengo isn’t a shrinking violet. Nor is he short of self-regard. He is a man who believes he’s a political genius. He doesn’t see why, or how, he hasn’t been president of Kenya already. His ego and self-confidence are gargantuan. But so are his brains. The man is brilliant, at least as a lawyer. He has the gift of gab. He also has a winning personality – quick to laugh, self-effacing, and not offensive to the naked eye. Whatever the case, Mr Orengo is quite the character. He enjoys fine drinks and has impeccable taste in his wardrobe.

Seven Bearded Sisters

It is his oratorical skills and gentlemanly mien, which have stood him in good stead. To understand Mr Orengo well, you are better advised to comb his political biography. At 75 years old today, Mr Orengo is a dinosaur of Kenyan politics. The man from Ugenya in Siaya was first elected to parliament on a KANU ticket at the age of 29, making him the youngest MP at the time. You can excuse his hubris with such an accolade. In Bunge at the time, he was part of the so-called Seven Bearded Sisters – Abuya, Koigi Wamwere, Mwashengu wa Mwachofi. Chibule wa Tsuma, Lawrence Sifuna and Onyango Midika — as labelled by then Attorney General Charles Njonjo. In the de-facto one party state, they gave President Daniel arap Moi a run for his money.

Mr Orengo rose and fell at the same time with his political nadir in 1995 following the death of Ford-Kenya’s supremo Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. At Thika Stadium, where Ford Kenya’s succession elections were being held in March 1995, Mr Orengo went head-to-head with Raila Odinga for the post of vice chairman with Mr Wamalwa as chairman. Mr Orengo narrowly defeated Mr Odinga whereupon violence broke out between their supporters. Mr Odinga left Ford Kenya and formed the National Development Party, which came to dominate Nyanza. Since then, Mr Orengo has played second fiddle to Mr Odinga until his demise last year. Mr Orengo never reconciled himself to the obvious fact that Mr Odinga had totally eclipsed him as Nyanza’s political kingpin and Kenya’s most indomitable politician.

To be fair to Mr Orengo, politicians always think it’s going to rain tomorrow even when the political winds of the Sahara are evident. By their nature, politicians are eternal optimists, even when the lights are flushing red. We don’t have to look far to bear out this truism. Many a politician have been bankrupted by ambition. Many families have been broken by men who promised their spouses “this time will be different” only for them to suffer a crushing defeat. In fact, Mr Orengo is one of the luckiest ones. He’s been in the political cold for only one term from 2002-2007. In that year, he ran a quixotic presidential campaign against NARC and lost miserably, barely registering on the political Richter scale.

Political colossus

Mr Orengo ran against the NARC wave of the Mwai Kibaki-Raila Odinga juggernaut and received the drubbing of the ages. Although Mr Odinga isn’t here with us, Mr Orengo is still fighting his gremlins. Before Mr Odinga passed away last year, Mr Orengo had expressed his implacable opposition to his rapprochement with President William Ruto. It didn’t help that Mr Orengo was not brought into the inner kitchen where the William Ruto-Raila Odinga match was made. Mr Orengo only read about it in the papers or heard about in bars. It’s no surprise Mr Odinga chose Kisumu Governor Prof Peter Anyang Nyongo as the ODM leader’s placeholder as he ran for the top office of the African Union Commission. That stung Mr Orengo.

With Mr Odinga out of the way, Mr Orengo fancies that he can fill the shoes of the political colossus he never was. In my view, Mr Orengo will combine efforts with anyone and anything to try – key word is “try” – to supplant ODM and collapse Mr Odinga’s party, if he cannot take it over. Contrary to the views of outsiders, the two men rarely saw eye to eye. No trust was lost between them. Even in Mr Odinga’s death – and Baba was generous to Mr Orengo in life – nothing has changed.

Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor and Margaret W. Wong Professor at Buffalo Law School, The State University of New York. @makaumutua.